Falling Fortunes Of Nationals
Sun Herald
Sunday October 26, 2008
A lack of funds may force the National Party to merge, like it or not.
MIGRATION from the cities into coastal areas, most notably northern NSW, is diluting the traditional strongholds of the National Party.This trend is also occurring elsewhere, where farmers are moving off the land. Farming activity is decreasing in all areas, particularly in Queensland and the North Coast of NSW.Both the Liberals and the Nationals - particularly in NSW - have to accept the reality of these demographic changes and their impact on the politics of rural and regional Australia. More importantly, they have to demonstrate that they are capable of adjusting to this change if they are to regain the confidence of rural and regional people.The loss by the Nationals of the federal NSW seats of New England, Farrer, Richmond, Page and Lyne and their failure to win the state seat of Port Macquarie, should have sent a compelling message that something is seriously wrong in their rural seats. The loss of Lyne (the seat of former leader Mark Vaile) means that, since World War II, the National Party has lost every seat held by its party leader. The result in Port Macquarie, however, is a minute indicator of more serious issues influencing the support bases of both parties.The dysfunctional "dog's breakfast" of amalgamations and Coalition agreements at state and territory levels are irrelevant when federal members and senators from those states and territories come to Canberra. They sit in separate party rooms as individual political parties and then come together in a joint sitting as so-called Coalitionists. Is it any wonder that rural people are becoming increasingly disenchanted with them and are looking at alternatives such as independents? This is not the only issue affecting the future of the two parties. The Labor-led disgrace involving Wollongong Council forced the NSW Government to tighten funding disclosures and has disproportionately cut donations by business to the Liberal and National parties. The diminishing availability of corporate money is much more of a problem for the Nationals than it is for the major parties. This serious dilemma has not escaped NSW Nationals leader Andrew Stoner.In a recent article in The Land, he said that while he would support joint political campaigns with the Liberals to increase his party's alignment with the city-based party, he would avoid a merger. He also confirmed that one problem the NSW Nationals faced was a lack of funds, which could be boosted if the Liberals shared the money it collected on behalf of both parties. This was a reference to about $3million of public funding for the joint Liberal-National Senate ticket in the 2007 federal election, $1million of which went to the Nationals under a 2:1 deal - a deal many Liberals feel is far too generous, given the 4percent statewide vote of the Nationals.Unfortunately for the Nationals, the difficulty the Liberals will confront in raising money to fight state and federal election campaigns will eventually force them to jettison the joint Senate ticket. That will put the $1million gifted to the Nationals into Liberal campaign coffers, where many believe it always belonged.The outcome of such an overdue fiscally responsible move is that despite resistance from self- interested elements of both parties, considerable pressure will bear down on the resources of both, which will force them to seriously address the merger option.The warning signs of this pressure are already there at the federal level. Internal National Party research shows that by 2015 the Nationals may not hold any seats in the House of Representatives; this has been confirmed in a commissioned report to the party by respected demographer Bernard Salt.A poignant opinion piece penned recently by eminent former federal leaders of the Nationals, Peter Nixon, Ian Sinclair and Doug Anthony, with supporting comments from John Anderson calling for a merger, was compelling recognition of the undeniable and potentially damaging forces descending on conservative rural political representation.These thinkers fully understand the destructive outcome of party self-indulgence and the blinkered denial that is contributing to the hemorrhaging of conservative party voting support in the rural sector.Alby Schultz is federal Liberal MP for the NSW regional seat of Hume.By Invitation Only is a space for people of influence to have their say. Edited by Kerry-Anne Walsh. kwalsh@fairfaxmedia.com.au
© 2008 Sun Herald
